The coronavirus will infect more than 5 million people — and kill nearly 300,000 — across the US by late July if states fully reopen without social distancing measures in place, according to a new analysis, the NY Post reports.

The projected figures, detailed in the new Penn Wharton Budget model, forecast potential outcomes under various reopening scenarios. If states fully reopen, with “reduced distancing,” more than 5.4 million people nationwide will be infected and 292,692 will have died by July 24, the analysis indicates.

Partially reopening states while keeping social distancing measures in place will result in a different scenario — about 3.2 million positive cases and nearly 173,000 deaths by the same date, according to the modeling.