Much of the discussions are being conducted in secret, in documents that have recently been circulating among PA leadership. According to a summarizing document, a copy of which has been obtained by TPS, the PA Leadership is extremely engaged in the issue, and many of the senior officials are attempting to situate themselves in a better position for when the transition of power occurs. The internal strife within the PA’s leadership is heating up.

The document tells of numerous conversations taking place with a common theme – the understanding that Abbas’ rule is coming to an end in the near future. Abbas has been in power since 2004 and has been the head of PLO, Fatah and the PA. “Abbas holds the holy trinity”, a high-ranking PA official told TPS.

Abbas` time in power has been one of many struggles, officials say. Throughout his tenure, there have been shifts in many realms – inner politics, security, national issues and diplomacy, political and economic issues have all seen major changes.

Diplomatically, Abbas has tried to establish relations with the Americans, Europeans and Arab leaders.  He has had both accomplishments and downfalls, but it’s clear that what Abbas has left for his successor will be quite a difficult job. Sources say that “[senior leader Jibril] Rajoub no longer dreams at night of controlling Gaza.”

A few recent events, in particular, have caused the pressure to build up, in anticipation of the post-Abbas era. First, his old age and deteriorating health have intensified the power struggle that has been going on behind the scenes. Abbas is physically weak and has trouble breathing, although he continues to smoke. He is considered at a high risk to develop cancer and has recently been frequently admitted to the hospital for long periods of time.

Additionally, the disputes within the PLO and Fatah, and even more so, the fierce rivalry between the PLO and Fatah on the one hand and Hamas on the other, are the cause of much unrest among the high ranking officials at the PA. Officials in Ramallah are well aware of Hamas leader Khaled Mashal’s pledge to take over the PLO.

The geographic and political divide in the PA between Ramallah and Gaza has been a catalyst for the building of tension within the organization. Similarly, the bitter rivalry between Abbas and Mohammed Dahlan has fueled the struggle. Dahlan was thrown out of Fatah and started a new branch of the organization.

“Abbas is obsessed with Dahlan, and his people warn anyone coming to his office not to mention his name in Abbas’ presence,” an official told TPS.

The struggle is apparent also within the Fatah organization. In the lower ranks, there are tough struggles – the heads of branches threatening those above them in the ranks. The issue of appointing the members of the Fatah’s Revolutionary Council and Central Council is causing the organization to crumble from within. As a Fatah member put it, “compared to Fatah, the Likud party is child’s play.”

The document indicates the common understanding among Fatah officials that Abbas failed in his gamble to make the Palestinian independence his main focus. The lack of a political horizon, the worsening strife with the Trump administration, the split within the Palestinian leadership and the weakening of the Palestinian issue on the world stage will all play a part in shaping the future of the PA.

The chosen leader will likely be the one who will convince Palestinians he will be able to lead either to a successful peace process or a more extremist confrontational position toward Israel.

The poor economic situation in the PA is a crucial factor as well. The economy played a major role in the analysis found in the Palestinian document. The general understanding is that the Palestinian economy is suffering due to Israeli punishment and American sanctions.

Furthermore, the sanctions Abbas placed on PA workers in Gaza are a big issue for the public. All of these will need to be addressed by the next generation of leadership.

The list of potential substitutes for Abbas is quite long – among those who are hoping to take over after Abbas are Tawfik Tirawi, Nasser al-Qidwa, Saeb Erekat, Mahmoud al-Aloul, Majed Faraj, Rami Hamdallah, Mohammed Dahlan, Marwan Barghouti, Mohammad Shtayyeh and more.

Mahmoud al-Aloul was recently appointed to second in command in Fatah after Abbas. His power on the ground is significant and he is considered a strong candidate. He has lately assumed extreme rhetoric and has been warned by Israel not to stay on his hawkish path. Aloul’s health is poor – he suffers from diabetes, but when facing the cameras he seems to be vibrant and well.

Majed Faraj, who is the head of the General Intelligence Service, and is considered to be in charge of national security and has close relations with the US, is also a leading candidate. Some say that “the secrets he has on Abbas and his family are a guarantee for him, and will pave his way to Abbas` office when he’s gone.”

Mohammed Dahlan, who is currently conducting expansive international business, is considered a strong candidate despite his distance from current Palestinian affairs. He also has a uniquely strong relationship with Hamas in Gaza.

Rami Hamdallah, the former prime minister who was ousted by Fatah officials, is considered to be a weak candidate to his lack of a military background.

Marwan Barghouti, who is still in an Israeli prison, is considered a threat by many who would rather Israel kept him locked up for as long as possible.

The current Prime Minister, Mohammad Shtayyeh, is also seen as a threat, and so is Saeb Erekat, who is hoping to be able to survive his lung disease and stay healthy enough to fill Abbas` shoes.

The officials in the PA and PLO have continued to strengthen their militias as a defense or an attack force for the ensuing chaos after Abbas` rule. These officials, Mahmoud al-Aloul being prominent of the group, are becoming more extreme toward Israel as time passes.

Sources in Fatah say the appointment of Mahmoud al-Aloul as second in command has sparked tension in the organization. They say Aloul has a signed document from Abbas promising him to be the next president. By appointing Aloul, Abbas has eased the growing pressure that was placed on him to make numerous high ranking appointments. Read more at VINnews