Tuesday's explosion, which occurred at a historic low point for Lebanon, with the country in the midst of an unprecedented economic crisis, could upend everything for Hezbollah.

Even before all the details emerged about the enormous explosion that rocked Beirut on Tuesday, it was clear that this was an event that would change things completely and whose ramifications are far from being known.

Because things in the Middle East don't tend to blow up on their own, one's first instinct is to look for the party responsible for the blast. Whatsapp groups and tweets rushed to finger Israel, but a quick probe prompted all political and defense officials in Israel to issue a flat denial.

Past experience also shows us that Israel is very careful in selecting its targets, and even more careful in trying to ensure that its actions will not result in collateral damage. The attempt to avoid civilian casualties stems not only from a desire not to kill innocent people, but also from the understanding that an incident like this could launch a cycle of bloodshed and revenge that could even become a war. Errors can happen, but a mistake of this magnitude – with thousands of wounded and vast damage – is not an action Israel would take, either openly or in secret.

In the first minutes that followed the event, some feared that Hezbollah would level accusations at Israel to avoid being blamed for it. But the organization, with help from news outlets in Lebanon, rushed to make it clear that Israel was not involved. That clarification might have something to do with the fact that Hezbollah isn't behind the blast either, or wants to obscure evidence against itself.

Things will become clearer once it is determined what exactly blew up in Beirut, and whether it was a military incident (involving a weapons storehouse) or a civilian one (stocks of some material that caused the huge explosions – rumors in Lebanon on Tuesday said that it was stores of nitrogen.) Read more at Israel Hayom