WASHINGTON - One thing is for sure -- the early week is not going to feel a bit more like early fall as opposed to late fall. A strong storm system will be getting its act together across the Great Lakes region. Strong southern flow through multiple levels of the atmosphere will warm us nicely after a chilly weekend. Temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s by Monday afternoon with more widespread lower 60s by Tuesday afternoon. It will be warm enough that the last thing on one's mind would be the threat for snow.
But Wednesday morning may surprise with a little sneak attack!
Late Tuesday night -- a cold front will cross the region, causing temperatures to crash from those 60s to near the freezing mark by the time sunrise arrives on Wednesday morning. It is along this boundary that a separate, weaker storm system may ride along early Wednesday. This system is the one that could throw enough moisture back into the incoming cold air that morning commuters may be heading into work under snowflakes on Wednesday morning.
There are two keys to this event on Wednesday night. The first is the arrival of cold air, which models always seem to overestimate (meaning they forecast it to be too cold) too quickly when we are bringing in the colder air from the northwest, mostly because they underestimate the "damming effect" that the mountains to our northwest have on that cold. The second is the strength of the wave that will be trying to develop along the front on Wednesday morning. The more intense the wave, the more intense the burst of snow could be. In order for snow to stick and cause issues when ground temperatures are not below freezing (and they will not be Wednesday morning) is you need it to come down steady to heavy, so that the rate of sticking exceeds the rate of melting.
So naturally biggest question of course is do we have to worry about anything sticking? Any sort of school delays or cancellations? To be honest the potential is there. But will it be realized? What is the most we could be looking at here in the D.C. region? Read more at FOX5DC