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Is This Year A Shana M’u-beres And How Early Can Rosh Hashana Occur?

By BJLife/Dr. Boruch Mordechai (Bert) Miller

Posted on 09/02/21

Parshas HaShavua Divrei Torah sponsored by
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L’zacheir nishmas my mother, Rivka bas Yisroel Avraham A’H


Introduction


Have you heard my riddle about Rabi Yehuda HaNasi?


Why is it that Rabi Yehuda HaNasi never sponsored a shul kiddush on Shabbos Mevorchim, and how could I know the answer?


It wasn’t because he could not afford to do so, because he was a wealthy man (Avoda Zara 10a/b). 


Rabi Yehuda HaNasi (died, early 3rd century CE) never sponsored a shul kiddush on Shabbos Mevorchim because Shabbos Mevorchim did not yet exist.  His descendant Hillel II (4th century CE) had not yet fixed the calendar.  No Shabbos Mevorchim observance is mentioned in either the Babylonian Talmud (completed by the end of the 5th century CE) or the Jerusalem Talmud.  The Jerusalem Talmud (Sanhedrin perek 5, halacha 3) may be understood as reporting that Rav Yassa would not daven musaf until he knew which day (the 30th or 31st) had been proclaimed Rosh Chodesh.  The Shabbos Mevorchim observance we have today was created between the eras of the Geonim and the Rishonim and might be traced to this Yerushalmi.  


See also Or Zarua 2-452, the Yereim 259, the Abudraham (beginning of hilchos Rosh Chodesh), Aruch HaShulchan Orach Chaim 417:8, Mekor Chaim (by the Chavos Yair) siman 423:3, Yosef Ometz os 695, and Talmud Yerushalmi Sanhedrin (ArtScroll English 31a3).


Background                        


The lunar (a.k.a. synodic) month’s mean (i.e., average) duration is 29 days, 12 hours, 44 minutes and 1 cheilek (i.e., 29.530628 days).  A cheilek equals 3 1/3 seconds.  The actual duration varies slightly from month to month.  Therefore, before Hillel II, given the date of the previous Rosh Chodesh, our ancestors could determine the two possible dates of the next Rosh Chodesh by counting 30 (or perhaps 31) days.  The next Rosh Chodesh cannot occur only 29 days after the previous Rosh Chodesh because the average month is about 29 ½ days.  If the 30th night since the previous Rosh Chodesh would have 100% thick cloud cover in the Jerusalem area so that no witnesses could observe the new moon, the bais din would automatically wait 24 hours and declare Rosh Chodesh to be day 31.


The actual day would be determined at a proceeding conducted in the Jerusalem bais din (See Mishneh Torah, Kiddush HaChodesh, perek 5) when the judges received the testimony of the witnesses. There was no way to predict which of the two possible days would be Rosh Chodesh.


Just like Hashem decided that Shabbos occurs on the Seventh Day, and not on a different day, He decided that Pesach would occur in “Chodesh Ha-Aviv (the spring month [in the northern hemisphere]).”  See Shemos 23:15, 34:18, and Devarim 16:1.  Therefore, the Jewish calendar must be maintained so that Pesach will occur every year in the aviv, spring.


Since the lunar year is 354 days, 8 hours, 48 minutes, 40 seconds (i.e., 354.367287 days) and the solar year is 365 days, 5 hours, 48 minutes, and 46 seconds (i.e., 365.242199 days), 12 lunar cycles do not synchronize with a solar year.  The Muslim community knows this fact because their holidays annually move 10 or 11 days backwards through the solar year calendar.  Suppose their fasting month of Ramadan would begin one year on December 31.  Within about three years, that holiday would begin in November.  Eventually it would begin in October,  then September, etc.  Over the course of about 33 years, the date of Ramadan will pass through each of the 12 secular months, and return to where it was 33 years before.  Similarly, if the Jewish calendar had no series of corrections, Pesach (“the 15th day of the first month”) would occur about 11 days earlier each successive year. 


If one examines our lunar calendar, he will see that during 12 (non-leap) years during every 19-year cycle, Rosh Hashana will occur in September, 10-13 days earlier than the prior Rosh Hashana.  These 12 (non-leap) years are those which occur 2 (and sometimes 3) years after a leap year. In order to maintain the lunar-based Yom Tov of Pesach in the spring, the Jerusalem bais din would insert a leap month in 7 years during every 19-year cycle.  This procedure is called intercalation in English, or being me’aber the year, in Hebrew.  In the fourth century (359 CE), Hillel II fixed the calendar through the year 6000 (2239 CE).  His use of 19-year cycles and leap years maintained Pesach in the spring.


The Pirkei D’Rabi Eliezer informs at the beginning of Perek 8 that Hashem shared the sod ha-ibur (methodology of intercalation) with Adam HaRishon, who shared it with Chanoch, who shared it with Noach, etc.  Eventually it was shared with Avraham Avinu.  According to this, Hillel II did not invent intercalation.  To create his calendar, he applied the intercalation techniques he had learned from those who came before him.  This history of sod ha-ibur is also found in the medieval medrash collection called Lekach Tov on Shemos 12. 


Oo-l’chaparas pasha


Every davener knows that at the end of the 4th bracha of Rosh Chodesh musaf, the words, ”oo-l’chaparas pasha (and for the forgiveness of willfully/rebelliously committed sins)” appear.  These two words constitute the 13th request in that bracha corresponding to the 13 months of a shana m’u-beres (leap year).  Perhaps the earliest “Rosh Chodesh-related” appearance of these two words is in the siddur of Rav Amram Gaon (9th century CE).  The Mishneh Brura (423:6) reports three minhagim regarding the insertion of these two words, 1) some add the words in every Rosh Chodesh musaf, 2) some add the words throughout a leap year, and 3) some add the words only during a leap year and only up to and including Rosh Chodesh Adar Sheini.  The Kaf HaChaim reports a fourth minhag in os 18, i.e. some add the words only on Rosh Chodesh Adar Sheini.  The minhag Chabad is not to add the phrase.


If one omits the words when his minhag is to say them, he neither “goes back,” nor repeats his musaf prayer. If one adds the words when his minhag is not to add them, he has committed no violation.  Halachah considers the need to determine whether a year is Meuber to be a tzorech tefila.  Therefore, if one reaches the end of the 4th bracha of Rosh Chodesh musaf and does not recall whether the year is Meuber, he may “leave his place” to find a Jewish calendar to determine whether the year is Meuber.  However, it is preferable for him to ascertain the leap status of the year before he starts his musaf tefila.


In an attempt to help people who reach the 4th bracha and realize that they do not know whether the current year is a shana m’u-beres, I present the following information.


I have examined the data covering the years 5600 (1839) through 6000 (2239) and I have reached several conclusions.





Observations


After 2023 (Meuber), the next year which is Meuber whose Rosh Hashana occurs on September 16 is 2137.  The next Meuber year whose Rosh Hashana occurs on September 17 is 2118.


Through the year 6000,


         all years whose Rosh Hashana occurs on September 15 or earlier are Meuber;


         no year whose Rosh Hashana occurs on September 18 or later is Meuber. 


The secular dates for Rosh Hashana vary from September 5 (several) to October 6 (only one, 2214).


Take away


If your minhag is to add “Oo-l’chaparas pasha” in Rosh Chodesh musaf only in leap years, then until year 2118 add it only in year 2023 and other years in which Rosh Hashana occurs on September 15 or earlier. 


Rabbi Dovid Heber suggests an approach which involves the consideration of the secular date of the upcoming Rosh Hashana.  If the secular date of the upcoming Rosh Hashana


is on or before September 23rd, the current year is not a leap year;


is on or after September 25th, the current year is a leap year;


is September 24th, and the current year is 2033, 2052, or 2071 it is a leap year.


What you can do 


The next time you will need the above information will be Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan, 5782 (October 6, 2021).  I once asked a senior posek how he knows in the middle of musaf for Rosh Chodesh whether the year is a leap year.  He described his method as “simple.”  He said, “If Pesach comes early, then the year is not a leap year.”  His method worked for him because he is the rabbinic administrator of a significant kosher-certifying agency.  He is busy with kosher for Passover industrial kashrus already in Cheshvan.  I must admit that when I cannot recall whether the current year is a leap year, I also cannot recall whether the upcoming Pesach will come “early” or “late.”


If you write the date, “September 15,” in your siddur at the location of musaf for Rosh Chodesh, and you remember the secular date of last Rosh Hashana, you will be successful in knowing whether a year is a leap year.  Alternatively, make a note in your siddur at the beginning of Rosh Chodesh musaf (or at the end of Hallel) to remind yourself to find the leap status of the year before you start musaf.  Alternatively, on leap years, post a sign showing “oo-l’chaparas pasha,” in your shul next to or on the ya-aleh v’yavo sign, or simply have the gabbai announce


“oo-l’chaparas pasha,”  before musaf.


May Moshiach come before one needs to use this information.


If you would like to have a spreadsheet showing 400 years of the secular dates of Rosh Hashana, 5600-6000, send your request to guidetobaisdin@gmail.com


I thank R’ Eliezer Reidler for providing me with the above data, and R’ Chaim Harris for the excel spreadsheet.  I also thank Rabbi Dovid Heber, Rabbi Dr. Moshe Rosenwasser, and Rabbi Mordechai Weiskopf for their critical reading of this paper and their constructive suggestions.


Dr. Boruch Mordechai (Bert) Miller 11/7/2020 / 21 Cheshvan 5781