“If everybody who is eligible did claim this thing, it would be a budget buster,” Mr. Davis said, “but how many will claim — it is uncertain.”
The $1,700 per person limit was a significant change from an earlier version of the legislation, which offered a dollar-for-dollar tax credit up to 10 percent of a donor’s income, which would have incentivized ultrawealthy donors to make large donations. Republican lawmakers made a series of changes after the Senate parliamentarian, a nonpartisan official who enforces Senate rules, objected to certain portions of the bill.
“You have to convince, now, a lot of people to give $1,700 a piece,” said Jim Blew, an assistant secretary at the Education Department during Mr. Trump’s first term and a co-founder of the Defense of Freedom Institute, a conservative group that supports school choice.
He celebrated the bill as a transformative option for families, but said that the number of students served will be limited by the number of donations that nonprofits are able to drum up.
States must also choose to participate. James Cultrara, co-chairman of the New York State Coalition for Independent and Religious Schools, said he was hopeful that Democrat-led states would opt in, in part because “there is no cost to any state.” But proposals for families to spend public money on private education have historically struggled to gain traction in New York and other blue states.