Posted on 01/13/25
| News Source: JPost
Israel and Hamas are close to a possible hostage, ceasefire deal in which 33 hostages will be released during the first phase, with a staged withdrawal of IDF forces from Gaza other than an undefined security perimeter.
The sources noted that on the 16th day of the ceasefire, negotiations would start regarding the later stages of the hostage exchange with the goal of releasing all the hostages and regarding IDF withdrawals, but did not mention a definite time frame, though some sources expect the first phase of the deal to last 42 days.
In terms of when the ceasefire deal would be signed and if it would be signed, there was still uncertainty if it was hours away, days away, or could still unravel.
Diplomatic sources said a cabinet vote and an expected High Court of Justice ruling on petitions to block the deal would also be necessary.
Should the deal go through, the sources said that the first hostages could be released fairly quickly, though it was unclear exactly what the release schedule would be
Regarding the Philadelphi Corridor, there were mixed messages, with sources declining to answer direct questions about how many IDF soldiers would remain there or for how long, though it appeared that some IDF soldiers would remain there during Phase 1 but not at some later phases, when IDF forces would only be at a security perimeter.
Sources said that the undefined security perimeter included the full length of Gaza, not just northern Gaza.
Regarding the drop from the 34 hostages leaked to the media to 33 hostages discussed now, the sources said that Yousef Ziadne, whose body was recently retrieved by the IDF had been on the list.
Sources did say that they believe most, though not all, of the 33 on the list are alive.
Pressed how this deal is better than a similar one discussed in July 2024, sources responded that Hamas was not ready to make the deal at the time.
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Diplomatic sources also said that those Palestinian prisoners with blood on their hands would not be released to the West Bank but declined to comment on whether they would be released to Turkey.
Sources also said that the number of Palestinian security prisoners being released would shift depending on how many Israeli hostages were alive versus dead.
Questioned for more specifics about what the sources meant that Hamas was not willing to make a deal in mid-2024, sources said that after Israel's April 27 offer, which is the basis of the current deal, Hamas responded on May 6 at 8:00 p.m. offering to return a list of mostly dead "humanitarian" hostages.
Trying to mislead Israel, sources said Hamas claimed many hostages who Israel was confident were alive were, in fact, dead in order to get Jerusalem to receive other hostages who were actually dead.
The Hamas strategy was to get Israel to accept as many dead hostages as possible upfront and then to later "discover" that more hostages were alive, to be able to better use them for altering the parameters of any deal at a later date.
Regarding the Netzarim Corridor splitting northern and southern Gaza, all indications were that the IDF would broadly speaking withdraw, though there would be unspecified "security arrangements" to review those Palestinians who would be allowed to return to northern Gaza.
In the past, the Post has been told that other than the top remaining Hamas terrorists, there would be little way that Israel could prevent most rank-and-file Hamas fighters from returning to northern Gaza under the guise of being civilians.
Sources said that the IDF would not fully withdraw from Gaza until every single hostage was released.
They complimented Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on achieving as part of the deal: some kind of security perimeter, a larger number of live hostages at Phase 1 (in July 2024, 18 hostages were often being discussed as opposed to 33), and some kind of unspecified achievement regarding the Philadelphi Corridor.
Moreover, the sources said that pressure by the US on Israel, such as the May partial arms embargo, Iran joining the war directly against Israel in mid-April, condemnations of Israel by the global community, and other events had hardened Hamas's positions at some other points when a deal seemed close.
Unsaid by the sources was that this deal would be cut by Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of Yahya Sinwar, who was the architect of the October 7 invasion, and that both Israel and Mohammed Sinwar might be ultimately finding it easier to cut a deal that it was with Yahya, who Israel killed in mid-October 2024.
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