California has already seen several flu-related deaths. ‘It does make me a little bit more nervous’ about flu season, one expert says.

Doctors are urging Americans to get their flu shots right away after a bad flu season in Australia has raised concerns about the coming season in the U.S.

Public health experts often look to the Southern Hemisphere’s influenza patterns for clues of what’s to come. This year Australia saw an earlier-than-usual peak of flu cases and had a tough season overall. The predominant flu strain in Australia, as in recent years in the U.S., was the H3N2 virus, which generally causes more severe illness, particularly among the elderly, and more hospitalizations and deaths.

“It does lead you to believe that this H3N2 virus is definitely on the move and is changing, which is never a good situation,” says pediatrician Randy Bergen, clinical lead for the Kaiser Permanente flu vaccine program in Northern California. “It does make me a little bit more nervous than I am in general looking ahead to the flu season.”

He says so far weekly surveillance data still shows relatively small numbers of flu cases but there have already been several flu-related deaths in California, which is a concern.

The Australian flu season doesn’t always predict the U.S. one. Last year, Australia had a mild flu season with several different influenza viruses circulating, whereas the U.S. had a very long season with a new H3N2 variant emerging, says Dan Jernigan, head of the influenza division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The World Health Organization has added that new H3N2 variant into the vaccine used right now in the U.S. Creating the flu vaccine is an imprecise science because it’s hard to know exactly which strains will circulate in the coming season, and the virus can mutate quickly.

But experts say that even if the flu vaccine doesn’t exactly match the strains that circulate, it’s still far better to get a flu shot than to skip it. It provides protection for various strains that often circulate together, and there’s evidence that the vaccine lessens the duration and severity of the illness even if you do end up getting sick.

Most importantly, even an imperfect vaccine helps prevent the spread to others, including infants 6 months and under who can’t get a flu shot. The most common side effects from the shot are soreness and tenderness or swelling at the site of injection, though muscle aches, headache, and a low-grade fever can also occur. More serious side effects are very rare. Read more at WSJ