Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for president, tells Fox News he's changed his mind and now will seek re-election to the Senate

New Florida poll shows only Rubio beats Democrats in U.S. Senate race

A new Florida poll shows why GOP elites have lobbied U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio so hard to reverse course and run for re-election: He’s the only Republican who’s beating the Democrats in the race for his seat.

Rubio, who could make his intentions clear on Wednesday, leads U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy 47 percent to 40 percent and U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson 48 percent to 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University survey of 975 registered Florida voters that has a 3.1 percentage point error margin.

All of the race’s four announced Republican candidates lose to those two Democrats in theoretical head-to-head match-ups, according to the poll. With the exception of Murphy, all the candidates announced after Rubio said he wouldn’t seek re-election because he was running for president.

An incumbent who once enjoyed high favorable ratings, Rubio’s image took a beating when he ran for president.

“When you lose a presidential election, your numbers go down at home. It’s an axiom of American politics,” said Peter A. Brown, Quinnipiac's assistant polling director. “But it’s important to say that if Rubio runs, he’ll start off ahead. And in a year when Republicans are having trouble, it’s better to start off ahead than behind.”

A portion of Quinnipiac’s poll that was released earlier this week showed Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in Florida, which is basically Rubio’s margin over the Democrats in the Senate race. That indicates Trump, who beat Rubio in 66 of Florida’s 67 counties in the Florida's March 15 presidential primary, isn’t dragging down the senator in the eyes of voters, Brown said.

According to the poll, Rubio’s approval rating is divided, with 45 percent approving and 44 percent disapproving. His Democratic counterpart, Sen. Bill Nelson, is in better shape with 52 percent approving of him and 22 percent disapproving. President Barack Obama posted his best job-approval rating among Florida voters in about four years: 54 percent favorable to 42 percent unfavorable. Gov. Rick Scott is basically under water, 43 percent approval to 46 percent disapproval, according to the poll.

The poll of the Senate race, which didn’t include Aug. 30 primary match-ups, indicates all of the major candidates are largely unknown. Their support is almost equivalent to a generic-ballot test in which voters are asked if they would support a generic Republican or Democratic candidate.

According to Quinnipiac’s survey, developer Carlos Beruff trails Murphy by 12 percentage points and Grayson by 7 percentage points. U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis loses to Murphy and Grayson by 10 points and 8 points, respectively. Businessman Todd Wilcox is behind Murphy and Grayson by 10 points and 5 points, respectively. And Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera is down by 9 points and 5 points to Murphy and Grayson, respectively.

Of the Republican candidates, Beruff has most stridently dared the “career politician,” Rubio, to reverse course and seek re-election. Beruff has spent $4 million of his own money on the race and told others he’s ready to chip in $10 million more.

But Republican leaders in Washington and in Florida haven’t been impressed with the GOP field. They’re worried that, if Rubio’s not on the ballot, the GOP could lose the seat and thereby control of the Senate. So they have incessantly lobbied and cajoled Rubio to reconsider.

Rubio began to waffle in recent weeks and started seriously considering re-election after the June 12 mass shooting inside an Orlando nightclub when Lopez-Cantera — a close family friend — urged him to give the race a second look. Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis are expected to drop out if Rubio announces.

DeSantis is likely to run for his redrawn 6th Congressional District seat in Northeast Florida, a source familiar with his planning said, but he might also eye the 4th Congressional District. If DeSantis runs in the 6th, it could displace other candidates, including Brandon Patty, for whom Rubio is supposed to headline a fundraiser on Wednesday. Rubio was supposed to headline a fundraiser for Lopez-Cantera on Friday.

The deadline to qualify for office is Friday.

While Democrats would prefer that Rubio retire as he pledged, some see it as an opportunity to defeat him for the second time in one year in the hopes of severely damaging his political legacy. Democrats have already budgeted $20 million on ads. Along with liberal groups, Democrats have been steadily pumping out quotes and video clips of Rubio saying he wouldn’t run for Senate since he was running for president.

On Tuesday, the Miami Herald posted a snippet of a recording last month of Rubio speaking at a Palm Beach County event where he urged candidates to run for office only if they have their heart in it.

“Don't just run because there's an open position and you can win,” Rubio said. “If you run for something because it's open and you can win, you're going to regret that decision. You're going to get there you're going to be bored. You're going to be antsy. You're not going to like it.”